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"The Point" is written by BMP Editor Kelly Barner as well as a diverse group of guest contributors.

The February ISM-New York Report on Business: Short Term Upturn

The February ISM-New York Report on Business was released on March 3rd at 9:45am Eastern and is available for download pdfhere. Please see the end of this commentary for additional information about the ISM-New York Report on Business.

In February, New York City purchasing managers reported improved Current Business Conditions, Current Revenues, and prices paid.

Current Business Conditions rose for the second month in a row, reaching a 10-month high of 51.9 in February, up from 45.8 in January. 

The Six-Month Outlook fell for the second consecutive month, reaching 53.8 in February, down from the 3-month low of 57.3 reported in January. The six-month outlook has been a reliable short-run guide for current business conditions over time.

Employment, a seasonally adjusted index, fell for the second month in a row, coming in below the breakeven point at 49.3, down 6.8 points from the 56.1 reported in January. 

Quantity of Purchases continued to edge downward, reaching a 5-month low of 41.7 in February, down from 43.1 in January. 

Top line and forward revenue guidance moved in opposite directions for the fourth consecutive month. Current Revenues was the biggest mover in February, rising 16.9 points to reach a 9-month high of 58.3, up from a 4-month low of 41.4 in January. Expected Revenues fell to 50.0, the same level reported in December, after a 1-month increase to 64.3 in January.

Prices Paid fell to a 29 month low of 54.2 in February (referencing 52.3 in September of 2017). This index fell 13.9 points from January's 4-month high finding of 68.1.

Further Consideration

“Of all the factors increasing uncertainty, I think the coronavirus outbreak has the greatest potential to negatively impact global business conditions in February. The US stock market dropped in response to the virus’ spread on January 27th, but rebounded midweek as corporations reported strong earnings. As the virus spreads and manufacturing and travel are further impacted, there is no telling what the full fallout will be, or when it will end.” – Commentary on the January ISM-New York Report on Business

I wrote that comment about the risk of the coronavirus and its impact on supply chains one month ago, so you can appreciate my apprehension when I received the file of February survey responses. And yet, I see this month’s report as an indication of quiet confidence. Sure, concerns remain about the spread of the virus and how it will affect business performance as far out as the Holiday shopping season, but it is not time to panic yet.

In another risk-averse measure of business confidence, the DOW set a single-day point record on Monday, rebounding after a down week to gain over 1,290 points. Your personal explanation of that may depend on your point of view, but the markets hate uncertainty. In fact, at this point, the greatest danger may be from the overreaction itself. Medical masks, widely derided as ineffective in the face of the coronavirus threat, are now running short in places where they are both needed and effective. That is a self-imposed hurdle.

New York Metro purchasing managers took an interesting turn this month. The long-term view represented by the Six-Month Outlook and Expected Revenues has been outpacing Current Business Conditions and Current Revenues for months and months. Not in February. This month the longer-term uncertainty caused everyone to see conditions for what they are – pretty darn good, considering.

Remember to check back in with me on Thursday, April 2nd for the release of the March ISM-New York Report on Business. 

The 2020 Report Release Schedule is as follows:

January 3

February 4

March 3

April 2

May 4

June 2

July 2

August 4

September 2

October 2

November 3

December 2

About the ISM-New York Report on Business

Like ISM’s national report, the ISM-New York Report on Business is compiled as diffusion indices –we add the percent of positive responses to one-half of those responding that conditions remained the same.  A reading of 50.0 means no change from the prior month, greater than 50.0 indicates a faster pace of activity, and less than 50.0 a slower rate. Each month is not so much a reading of the current level of activity as it is an indication of growth or contraction from the previous month. 

A note specific to the New York Metro area, where all of this report’s respondants are located: they are predominantly in professional services industries. It is important to keep this in mind when we think about the context for the trends being reported by these particular purchasing managers.

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Recommended Webinars Nov 26-30: Instant Impact S2P and The Issue of Trust

This week, Procurement Leaders’ Data, Intelligence, and Technology Forum is taking place in London on Tuesday and Wednesday. If you are planning your webinar schedule beyond this week, I recommend ‘Achieving Agility in Procurement Operations: Beam’s Transformation Journey’ from ISM, Scout RFP, and Beam Suntory on December 11th.

A quick note as the end of the year approaches: I’m watching the event listings for December, and as of right now it looks like December 10-14 will be the last week of the year. If the week after fills in, I’m game, but if it doesn’t, I’ll stop my event recommendations posts on December 17th and pick up again on January 7th.

BTW: If you haven’t already, sign up for our mailing list to be sure you get my weekly recommendations in your Inbox each Monday.

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Book Review: Third Party Risk Management

“Efficient, effective, risk-centric, and risk-adjusted third party lifecycle and risk management is a new and distinct way of doing business. How your company approaches any major change like this one is up to senior leadership.” (p. 162)

 

Third Party Risk Management: Driving Enterprise Value by Linda Tuck Chapman (The Risk Management Association, 2018) tackles one of the topics that procurement organizations discuss most – how to prepare for, handle, and mitigate the risks that result from our company working with third parties. Although it is not declared on the cover, the book is largely focused on the financial services industry. That said, the vast majority of the information will apply to your company regardless of industry or sector.

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Book Review: Fundamentals of Risk Management (5th Ed.)

“When considering any contribution that risk management can make to the organization, it is important to decide whether the contribution will relate to strategy, projects and/or operations. The decision will enable the risk management activities within the organization to be aligned with the other business operations activities and imperatives.” P. 292

 

Fundamentals of Risk Management: Understanding, Evaluating and Implementing Effective Risk Management (5th Ed.) by Paul Hopkin (Kogan Page, July 2018) provides a thorough and instructive foundation for anyone looking to increase their enterprise’s rigor around risk. By acknowledging and discussing critical contextual issues such as global finance, international regulations, corporate culture, and natural human responses to risk, this book sets the reader up for success - and empowers them to proactively and positively navigate the inevitable uncertainty we all work in the midst of.

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Recommended Webinars June 4-8: 3rd Party Financial Risk, Real World RPA, Transforming Supplier Management

And… we’re back! After a 1 webinar week last week – likely due to the Memorial Day holiday in the U.S. – June is already shaping up to be an active month for events. If you like to plan further ahead, I recommend "Building a Best-in-Class Category Management Program: The Newest Trends, Tips and Technologies" on June 12th from SIG and GEP.

BTW: If you haven’t already, sign up for our mailing list to be sure you get my weekly recommendations in your Inbox each Monday.

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Recommended Procurement Webinars Feb 26 – March 2: Automated Contracts and Supplier Financial Health

This is a sleepy week after last week’s flurry of webinars and conferences. If you are interested in a ‘long shot’ webinar worth considering, I recommend “Artificial Intelligence - Changing the Landscape of Due Diligence and Monitoring” from ISM and LexisNexis on March 8th at 2pm ET. Click on the title of each recommended webinar below to view the full description and register.

BTW: If you haven’t already, sign up for our mailing list to be sure you get my weekly recommendations in your Inbox each Monday.

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Webinar Recommendations for August 17 - 21, 2015: RPA is Here to Stay, Supply Chain Index Update, Why Due Diligence Matters

This week there are seven webinars being run, and I’ve taken the opportunity to recommend three on topics that are very different from each other while all still providing access to compelling thought leadership. Click on the title of each event below to view the full description in our events calendar and connect to their registration pages.

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3 Reasons Why You Should Consider Dual Sourcing Your Product Or Service

We’ve all heard the saying, “Don’t keep all your eggs in one basket.” Choosing to dual source a category means using two (or more) suppliers to provide identical copies of a product or service. Many companies choose to dual source a product to maintain quality levels of service to their customers and mitigate potential supply chain issues.

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Recent Comments
Guest — Alan Holland
Some excellent points are made in this article. Procurement has long overlooked how critical it is to have dual sourcing. The seco... Read More
Wednesday, 08 April 2015 04:31
Guest — Elizabeth Skipor
Agreed, it is a challenge to find 2 suppliers who can provide identical outputs. It creates a lot of up front work and headache, b... Read More
Wednesday, 08 April 2015 11:30
Guest — KOBUSINGE AIDA
its the reality,so gret n thnx
Thursday, 17 August 2017 06:35
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Why it is Not Worth Preventing Every Disruption in Your Supply Chain

Supply chains are similar to humans—imperfect. Their successes within business plans are a product of accurately forecasting how to survive crises and minimize damage in high-risk scenarios. Balance is the key to surviving most situations. In a supply chain, the accord between supply chain efficiency and risk mitigation can be difficult to achieve.

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The weather and your supply chain

Mother Nature has shown her fury with the 7 feet of snow that has fallen on Buffalo, NY this past week. It is an epic storm that just kept dumping snow on the region. At one point there was 130 miles of highway shutdown for several days. There were tractor trailers stranded and many deliveries that did not occur. You can bet that many supply chains were impacted. Even when the roads did open up again, it was for essential vehicles only. Something tells me that your shipment was probably not considered essential to the National Guard.

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Webinar Notes: Risk Management as a Team Sport: Who Are the Players and What's Your Game Plan?

This week’s webinar notes are from a July 31st event hosted by ISM and presented by LexisNexis. The event is available on demand on ISM’s site. If you are interested in more on the topic, LexisNexis has made available a white paper and accompanying infographic titled “Leveraging Market Intelligence to Better Manage Supply Chain Risk.

The presenter, Eric Walsworth, LexisNexis’ Director of Supply Management, illustrated each of his points about risk management by drawing comparisons to the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. I won’t embarrass myself by trying to recreate any of that – if you’re interested in the soccer angle you’ll have to watch the webinar on demand.

Walsworth took a need – risk management - that is overwhelming for many procurement teams and broke it down into very clear phases and efforts. Although each of these elements is important to a supply risk management effort, they must all work together in order to be effective. Additionally, although the following seem to be a linear process, they must all be executed in parallel.

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Book Review: Supply Chain Risk

 

Supply Chain Risk, by John Manners-Bell, provides a structured look at risk by establishing a series of intersecting dimensions. First the author outlines external risk categories: Environmental, Economic, Societal, Security, and Technological. Each has several sub categories that provide additional detail and clarity. Then he delves into a number of industry sectors to consider their resiliency factors and concerns: Automotive, High tech, Consumer goods/retail, Food, Fashion, and Pharma/healthcare.

The coverage from both perspectives is equally detailed and illustrated with numerous case studies. In their intersection, for instance where Economic risks intersect with the Automotive industry, any supply chain professional will find the information they need to quickly come up to speed on key areas of concern as well as strategies for assessment and mitigation.

 

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Webinar Notes: RAGE Frameworks Real Time Intelligence for Supplier Risk

Editor's note: Buyers Meeting Point would like to thank partner and colleague Jeanette Jones of Cottrill Research for this week's webinar notes. The original posting can be viewed on the Cottrill blog. For our readers without a background in etymology or taxonomies, an ontology is the study of categories of bring as well as their interrelations. In a procurement context, this can most clearly be seen in spend analysis through the category structure and hierarchy used by the company to group and organize transactions.

 

There are many articles and reports about using Big Data for supplier risk, but there is still confusion about what Big Data is and how exactly one moves forward. Tom Fishburne at marketcartoonist.com succinctly sums it up with this gem, “many companies struggle with small data, let alone big data.”

 

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Webinar Notes: Improving Supplier Risk Management in the Age of Big Data

“Risk management is not a purchasing initiative. It’s an initiative and philosophy that has to be embraced by the entire organization.”

-- Rose Kelly-Falls Senior VP Supply Chain Risk, Rapid Ratings and event panelist

This week’s webinar notes are from a February 13th webinar hosted by IASTA and featuring a panel of speakers. An on demand version of the event is available on their website.

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Webinar Notes: The Preparis 2014 Threat Report

This week’s featured webinar notes are from a February 6th webinar hosted by Preparis. The event is available on demand on their website. The event was fascinating, in no small part because of the qualifications of the speakers and the organizations they represent.

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Blog Pick of the Week: Nurture the Growth

In the Northern Hemisphere, the first day of Spring was 3/21. Sometimes that day feels like everything is waking up and beginning to grow. Other years, there is still snow on the ground and quite chilly.

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Challenge, Choices and Consequences: Sustainability and Risk Round Table

Buyers Meeting Point would like to thank Stephen Ashcroft and the team at Procurisk for sharing what they learned at this week's Sustainability and Risk round table. For more details please contact Stephen Ashcroft directly at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., on Twitter @ProcureChange or by calling 01744 20698. In addition, the Sustainability and Risk in Procurement group on Linkedin is accepting members.

 

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Webinar Notes: Supply Chain Risk Mitigation

This week’s featured webinar notes are from an event hosted on Thursday by Supply and Demand Chain Executive, “Supply Chain Risk Mitigation: Minimizing Exposure To Supplier Failure, Volatile Commodity Prices, And Manufacturing Disruption’.

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